Spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: A nonlinear regression analysis.

AIMS: This study describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of new visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases notified in Brazil between 2001 and 2020. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on the occurrence of the disease were obtained by means of the Notifiable Diseases Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint, temporal generalized additive models and conditional autoregressive (CAR) models were used to analyse the temporal evolution of the rates in Brazil, states and regions. Spatio-temporal generalized additive and CAR models were used to identify the distribution of annual risks of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory in relation to variation in the spatial average. There were 63,966 VL cases in the target period (3.198 cases/year), corresponding to a mean incidence rate of 1.68 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Of these, 4451 resulted in deaths, which gives a mean mortality rate of 0.12 deaths/100,000 inhabitants and a case fatality of 6.96%. The highest incidence rate was found in the North region, followed closely by the Northeast region, which presented the second and first highest mortality rates, respectively. For all of Brazil, and in the Northeast region, there were stability in the incidence rates, while the other regions showed an increasing trend in different time segments in the period: Central-West up to 2011, North up to 2008, Southeast up to 2004, and South up to 2010. On the other hand, all regions experienced a reduction in incidence rate during the last years of the series. The Northeast region had the highest number of municipalities with statistically significant elevated relative risks. The spatio-temporal analysis showed the highest risk area predominantly in the Northeast region in the beginning of the time series. From 2002 to 2018, this area expanded to the interior of the country. CONCLUSIONS: The present study has shown that VL has expanded in Brazil. However, the North and Northeast regions continue to have the highest incidence, and the risk of infection has decreased in recent years.

Temporal patterns, spatial risks, and characteristics of tegumentary leishmaniasis in Brazil in the first twenty years of the 21st Century.

BACKGROUND: Tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) is a significant public health issue in Brazil. The present ecological study describes the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of TL cases reported in the country, and analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of the incidences and risks of occurrence across the five geopolitical regions and 27 federative units. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data regarding new cases of TL notified between 2001 and 2020 were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint and spatial and temporal generalized additive models were used to establish trends in the evolution of TL during the target period. The incidence rate for the entire period was 226.41 cases/100,000 inhabitants. All regions of Brazil showed trends of decreasing incidence rates, albeit with fluctuations at specific times, with the exception of the Southeast where rates have increased since 2014, most particularly in Minas Gerais state. The disease was concentrated predominantly in the North region, with Acre state leading the incidence rank in the whole country, followed by Mato Grosso (Midwest), Maranhão and Bahia (Northeast) states. The spatial distribution of the risk of TL occurrence in relation to the annual averages was relatively stable throughout the period. The cutaneous form of TL was predominant and cases most frequently occurred in rural areas and among men of working age. The ages of individuals contracting TL tended to increase during the time series. Finally, the proportion of confirmations by laboratory tests was lower in the Northeast. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: TL shows a declining trend in Brazil, but its widespread occurrence and the presence of areas with increasing incidence rates demonstrate the persistent relevance of this disease and the need for constant monitoring. Our findings reinforce the importance of temporal and spatial tools in epidemiologic surveillance routines and are valuable for targeting preventive and control actions.

Spatio-temporal relative risks and priority areas for visceral leishmaniasis control in Brazil, between 2001 and 2020.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a pressing public health problem in Brazil. The proper implementation of disease control programs in priority areas is a challenge for healthcare managers. The present study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution and identify high risk areas of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory. We analyzed data regarding new cases with confirmed diagnosis of VL in Brazilian municipalities, from 2001 to 2020, extracted from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) was used to identify contiguous areas with high incidence rates in different periods of the temporal series. Clusters of high spatio-temporal relative risks were identified using the scan statistics. The accumulated incidence rate in the analyzed period was 33.53 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The number of municipalities that reported cases showed an upward trend from 2001 onward, although there was a decrease in 2019 and 2020. According to LISA, the number of municipalities considered a priority increased in Brazil and in most states. Priority municipalities were predominantly concentrated in the states of Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, and Mato Grosso do Sul, in addition to more specific areas of Pará, Ceará, Piauí, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Bahia, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Roraima. The spatio-temporal clusters of high-risk areas varied throughout the time series and were relatively higher in the North and Northeast regions. Recent high-risk areas were found in Roraima and municipalities in northeastern states. VL expanded territorially in Brazil in the 21st century. However, there is still a considerable spatial concentration of cases. The areas identified in the present study should be prioritized for disease control actions.

Phase II validation study of the rK39 ELISA prototype for the diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Dogs are the main reservoirs in the domestic transmission cycle of visceral leishmaniasis, and the diagnosis is essential for the effectiveness of the control measures recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. We assessed the diagnostic performance of the ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN prototype with serum samples from 200 dogs, in triplicate, including symptomatic, oligosymptomatic, asymptomatic, and healthy dogs, originated by two distinct panels (A and B) characterized by parasitological tests as the reference standard. In this study, the prototype kit showed a 99% sensitivity (95%CI: 94.5-100.0) and a 100% specificity (95%CI: 96.4-100.0). The sensitivity of the prototype kit did not vary significantly with the clinical status of the dogs. Considering the final result classification (positive or negative), agreement between the results of repeated tests was almost perfect (kappa = 0.99; 95%CI: 0.98-1.00). ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN is a promising option for the serological diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Phase II validation study of the rK39 ELISA prototype for the diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil / Estudo de validação da fase II do teste ELISA rK39 para o diagnóstico da leishmaniose visceral canina no Brasil / Estudio de validación de la fase II del test ELISA rK39 para el diagnóstico de la leishmaniasis visceral canina en Brasil

Abstract: Dogs are the main reservoirs in the domestic transmission cycle of visceral leishmaniasis, and the diagnosis is essential for the effectiveness of the control measures recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. We assessed the diagnostic performance of the ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN prototype with serum samples from 200 dogs, in triplicate, including symptomatic, oligosymptomatic, asymptomatic, and healthy dogs, originated by two distinct panels (A and B) characterized by parasitological tests as the reference standard. In this study, the prototype kit showed a 99% sensitivity (95%CI: 94.5-100.0) and a 100% specificity (95%CI: 96.4-100.0). The sensitivity of the prototype kit did not vary significantly with the clinical status of the dogs. Considering the final result classification (positive or negative), agreement between the results of repeated tests was almost perfect (kappa = 0.99; 95%CI: 0.98-1.00). ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN is a promising option for the serological diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Resumo: Os cães são os principais reservatórios do ciclo de transmissão domiciliar da leishmaniose visceral, e o diagnóstico é essencial para a efetividade das medidas de controle recomendadas pelo Ministério da Saúde. Os autores avaliam o desempenho diagnóstico do protótipo da ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN em amostras sorológicas de 200 cães, em triplicata, incluindo cães sintomáticos, oligossintomáticos e saudáveis, com dois painéis distintos (A e B) caracterizados por testes parasitológicos enquanto referência. No estudo, o kit-protótipo mostrou sensibilidade de 99% (IC95%: 94,5-100,0) e especificidade de 100% (IC95%: 96,4-100,0). A sensibilidade do kit-protótipo não variou de maneira significativa de acordo com o estado clínico dos cães. Considerando a classificação final dos resultados (positivo ou negativo), a concordância entre os resultados dos testes em triplicata foi quase perfeita (kappa = 0,99; IC95%: 0,98-1,00). O protótipo ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN tem o potencial de ser utilizada para o diagnóstico sorológico da leishmaniose visceral canina no Brasil.

Resumen: Los perros son los principales reservorios en el ciclo de transmisión doméstica de la leishmaniasis visceral, por ello el diagnóstico es esencial para la efectividad de las medidas de control recomendadas por el Ministerio de Salud de Brasil. Evaluamos el desempeño diagnóstico de ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN prototipo con muestras de sérum de 200 perros, en triplicado, incluyendo sintomático, oligosintomático, asintomático y perros sanos, originadas por dos paneles distintos (A y B), caracterizados por test parasitológicos como referencia estándar. En este estudio, el kit prototipo mostró un 99% de sensibilidad (IC95%: 94,5-100,0) y un 100% de especificidad (IC95%: 96,4-100,0). La sensibilidad del kit prototipo no varió significativamente con el estatus clínico de los perros. Considerando la clasificación final del resultado (positiva o negativa), el acuerdo entre los resultados de los tests repetidos fue casi perfecto (kappa = 0,99; IC95%: 0,98-1,00). ELISA-Vetlisa/BIOCLIN tiene potencial para ser usado para el diagnóstico serológico de la leishmaniasis visceral canina en Brasil.

Visceral leishmaniasis lethality in Brazil: an exploratory analysis of associated demographic and socioeconomic factors.

INTRODUCTION: It is believed that delays in diagnosis and treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) contribute significantly to the burden of VL lethality in Brazil. METHODS: This study included several parts: a descriptive cross-sectional study of the individual characteristics of deaths from disease; a descriptive ecological study of the spatial distribution of deaths from disease; and an ecological analytical study to evaluate the association between disease lethality rates and the demographic, socioeconomic, and health indicators. The study population comprised all cases diagnosed throughout the country per the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) and the total number of disease deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System (SIM) from 2007 to 2012. RESULTS: Of the 223 deaths from disease captured by pairing the databases, 59.1% were reported as "death from other causes". There were significant associations between VL lethality rate and municipalities with the highest proportion of vulnerable individuals (rate ratio (RR)=1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.27), with VL lower incidence rate (RR=0.62, 95% CI: 0.58-0.67) and a higher incidence rate of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) (RR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.51). CONCLUSIONS: Linking the SINAN and SIM databases allowed the inclusion of 14% of otherwise underreported deaths from VL for the study period, showing that this method is useful for the surveillance of VL-related deaths. The size of the municipal population, proportion of the vulnerable population, incidence of disease, and the incidence of AIDS were associated with municipal lethality rates related to VL in Brazil.

Visceral leishmaniasis lethality in Brazil: an exploratory analysis of associated demographic and socioeconomic factors

Abstract INTRODUCTION: It is believed that delays in diagnosis and treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) contribute significantly to the burden of VL lethality in Brazil. METHODS: This study included several parts: a descriptive cross-sectional study of the individual characteristics of deaths from disease; a descriptive ecological study of the spatial distribution of deaths from disease; and an ecological analytical study to evaluate the association between disease lethality rates and the demographic, socioeconomic, and health indicators. The study population comprised all cases diagnosed throughout the country per the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) and the total number of disease deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System (SIM) from 2007 to 2012. RESULTS: Of the 223 deaths from disease captured by pairing the databases, 59.1% were reported as "death from other causes". There were significant associations between VL lethality rate and municipalities with the highest proportion of vulnerable individuals (rate ratio (RR)=1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.27), with VL lower incidence rate (RR=0.62, 95% CI: 0.58-0.67) and a higher incidence rate of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) (RR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.51). CONCLUSIONS: Linking the SINAN and SIM databases allowed the inclusion of 14% of otherwise underreported deaths from VL for the study period, showing that this method is useful for the surveillance of VL-related deaths. The size of the municipal population, proportion of the vulnerable population, incidence of disease, and the incidence of AIDS were associated with municipal lethality rates related to VL in Brazil.

Revisiting area risk classification of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease of public health relevance in Brazil. To prioritize disease control measures, the Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde of Brazil's Ministry of Health (SVS/MH) uses retrospective human case counts from VL surveillance data to inform a municipality-based risk classification. In this study, we compared the underlying VL risk, using a spatiotemporal explicit Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), with the risk classification currently in use by the Brazil's Ministry of Health. We aim to assess how well the current risk classes capture the underlying VL risk as modelled by the BHM. METHODS: Annual counts of human VL cases and the population at risk for all Brazil's 5564 municipalities between 2004 and 2014 were used to fit a relative risk BHM. We then computed the predicted counts and exceedence risk for each municipality and classified them into four categories to allow comparison with the four risk categories by the SVS/MH. RESULTS: Municipalities identified as high-risk by the model partially agreed with the current risk classification by the SVS/MH. Our results suggest that counts of VL cases may suffice as general indicators of the underlying risk, but can underestimate risks, especially in areas with intense transmission. CONCLUSION: According to our BHM the SVS/MH risk classification underestimated the risk in several municipalities with moderate to intense VL transmission. Newly identified high-risk areas should be further evaluated to identify potential risk factors and assess the needs for additional surveillance and mitigation efforts.

The mass use of deltamethrin collars to control and prevent canine visceral leishmaniasis: A field effectiveness study in a highly endemic area.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a zoonosis of great importance. Limitations in current VL control measures compromise efficacy, indicating the need to implement new strategies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the mass use of deltamethrin-impregnated collars in dogs as a public health measure to control and prevent canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL). METHODOLOGY: An interventional study was implemented in two endemic areas in the district of Monte Gordo (Bahia-Brazil): an intervention area, in which VL seronegative dogs were collared, and a control area in which only conventional CVL control measures were applied. At baseline, seropositive dogs were removed and seronegative dogs were included. Dogs were then reevaluated every 7-8 months for almost two years. At each time point, dogs in the intervention area that remained seronegative received new collars and newly identified seronegative dogs were included and collared. The local zoonosis control authorities were notified of any dogs that tested seropositive in both areas, which were subsequently marked for euthanasia as mandated by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the first serological survey, seroprevalence was similar in both areas. At the second evaluation, significant reductions in seroprevalence were seen in both areas, while seroprevalence in the intervention area reduced to 6.0% during the final evaluation versus an increase of 11.0% in the control area. This significant increase and the estimated relative risk (RR = 0.55) indicated protection against CVL in the intervention area. Although CVL incidence did not differ significantly between the areas, an increased tendency was observed in the control area, which could be due to low seroconversion rates throughout the study or a high loss to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although our evaluation of the effectiveness of deltamethrin-impregnated collars as a community-wide public health control measure was inconclusive, this measure likely provides protection over time. In endemic areas of Brazil, this strategy represents an operational challenge for local zoonosis control authorities, indicating the need for adjustments, including improved collar design.